UFC Picks and Expert Predictions for UFC 317
The time for the next big MMA event is almost upon us, as the end of June brings the latest iteration of the most exciting and competitive Ultimate Fighting Championship event. UFC 317 is scheduled in about two weeks, and it is high time we discussed it in greater detail. From expert predictions and odds to interviews with the fighters themselves, we cover it all in this analytical approach to another night of the best that fighting sports and martial arts have to offer. If you are a fan of the sport and enjoy tuning into UFC events, make sure to read it through to the end. And if you are an online sports betting enthusiast, there will be some expert UFC picks and predictions along the way so that you can make the right choice and pick the best bets.
UFC 317 Details: When, Where, and Who
UFC 317: Topuira vs. Oliveira is scheduled to take place on June 28, 2025, at the famous T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. The state has become synonymous with the sport, and the Las Vegas Valley is arguably the best place for MMA events to take place, considering the spectacle that often takes place when the best mixed martial arts combatants take the ring. The event takes place during the annual International Fight Week, which UFC is now popular for, with a very special ceremony during the night. The 2025 UFC Hall of Fame ceremony is expected to take place at some point during the week, as fans can witness some of the greats earn their spot at the coveted hall.
There are 12 fights on schedule, divided into three cards. The fight card features the main events of the night, led by the titular matchup of the event. It is the lightweight bout between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira, a direct fight for the vacant title between two former champions. Current champ Islam Makhachev vacated the title to be eligible to challenge for the welterweight championship. There are also two flyweight fights. Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France is a flyweight championship bout originally rumored for both UFC 314 and 316. Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van fight in the other. Another lightweight clash will feature Beneil Dariush against Renato Moicano, with the middleweight class in the fight card being a duel between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov.
The preliminary card has four fights, each in a different class. The middleweight bout is a clash between Jack Hermansson and Gregory Rodrigues. In the featherweight division, we will see Hyder Amil take on Jose Delgado. In the only women’s bout of the event, strawweights Viviane Araujo and Tracy Cortez will go head to head. Terrance McKinney and Chachislav Vorshchev will be representing the lightweight division on this card. Before all of this, though, there are three more preliminaries. Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima fight in the bantamweight division, Jhonta Diniz and Alvin Hines meet in the heavyweight division, while Niko Price goes up against Jacobe Smith in the welterweight division.
UFC 316 Recap
Some two weeks ago, we had the pleasure of watching UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2. On June 7, 2025, at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, more than 17,000 people in attendance watched on as Dvalishvili defeated O’Malley by submission, a north south choke in round 3 at 4:42. It capped off a 13-fight night full of action. But the UFC 316 recap does not end there, since the main card was truly stacked. The headline match did capture most of the attention, but the co headliner was another anticipated duel, a bantamweight women’s world title fight between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison. Two time champion Pena fought well, but Harrison secured a kimura submission victory in round 2 to win the match.
Plenty of other highlights were seen, including veterans Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland, the latter winning by a brabo choke submission in round 2. Kelvin Gastelum, a former champion, fought the upstart challenger Joe Pyfer and lost to him by unanimous decision, while top bantamweight hopeful Marlon Vera went up against Mario Bautista, losing by unanimous decision as well. Early and preliminary rounds saw TKOs, unanimous decisions, and overall, a lot of MMA action that the fans hoped to see.
Joshua Van TKOed Bruno Gustavo da Silva in the third round to win his flyweight bout, while Azamat Murzakanov did the same to Brendson Ribeiro in the first round to win the light heavyweight division. Waldo Cortes Acosta and Andreas Gustafsson won by unanimous decisions against Serghei Spivac and Khaos Williams in the heavyweight and welterweight divisions, respectively. Wang Cong defeated Ariane da Silva by unanimous decision in the Catchweight 132 lb, while Yoo Joo-sang KOed Jeka Saraghi in round 1 in the featherweight. In the two early preliminary lightweight matchups, both Quillian Salkilld and MarQuel Mederos won by unanimous decision against Yanal Ashmouz and Mark Choinski, respectively.
UFC 317 Odds and Predictions
Now for the main part of this extensive deep dive for both the fans of the sport and online sports betting lovers. Right here and now, a week or so before the event, we have the freshest UFC odds for all of the fights so that you can take advantage of them early and pick the winners for a nice payout. Starting with the women’s strawweight, Tracy Cortez is the favorite against Viviane Araujo with 1.43 odds versus 2.85 odds to win the bout. Coming from the USA, Cortez has an 11-2-0 record with 4-1 in her last 5, while the Brazilian Araujo is at 13-6-0 and 2-3 in her last 5.
All of the remaining bouts are the gents, and we start with the middleweight fight between Jack Hermansson of Sweden and Gregory Rodrigues from Brazil. The Sweed is much more experienced with 24-8-0 and 3-2 in his last 5. The Brazilian is 16-60 and also 3-2. According to the Stake sportsbook, Rodrigues is the favorite with 1.52 odds, while the older Hermansson gets 2.55 odds and is the underdog.
In another middleweight fight, it is the 13-ranked Brazilian Paulo Henrique Costa against the 14-ranked Russian Roman Kopylov. They have very similar records, but one of them is in much better recent form than the other. Costa has a 14-4-0 record, but only 1-4 in his last 5. Kopylov is at 14-3-0, and has a 4-1 record in his last 5. This gives him a huge advantage in the odds with 1.40 and makes him the obvious favorite, while his opponent is at 2.95.
Moving on to the heavyweight division, we will see another Brazilian fighter, Jhonta Diniz, go up against the Australian Justin Tafa. Neither of them has fought a lot of matches, nor have they fought often recently. Diniz has a record of 8-1-0 and 2 wins in his last 3, while Tafa is at 7-5-0 with 2 wins and 2 losses in his last 4. The more successful Jhonta is a heavy favorite with 1.28 odds to win this bout, while Tafa is the clear underdog with 3.70 odds.
A very interesting and competitive bout awaits us in the flyweight division. Two American fighters will cross fists with 1 ranked Brandon Royval facing 10 ranked Joshua Van. Both of them have 4-1 in their last 5 bouts, but the better ranked fighter is more experienced. Royval is at 17-7-0 while Van is at 14-2-0. The experience gives Royval a slight advantage in the odds with 1.79 over Van’s 2.04, but it is close enough for a hard fought, 3 round spectacle with equal chances of finishing with a late KO/TKO or a decision. It is definitely one of the more interesting fights of the night.
A similar situation takes place in the lightweight division with rank 9 and rank 10 fighters clashing. Both experienced and close to their 30th fight, it is Beneil Dariush from the USA and Renato Moicano from Brazil. Dariush has a career record of 22-6-1 and is 3-2 in his previous 5. Moicano is at 20-6-1 with 4-1 in his previous 5. It is all roughly similar between the two, which is not what the odds alone would tell you. Moicano has the advantage from the sportsbooks with 1.64 odds over Dariush with 2.28. The American is far from being an underdog, though, as both have a good chance to win this one.
The co headliner of UFC 317 is a championship fight in the flyweight division between the defending champion, Brazilian star Alexandre Pantoja, and the 4-ranked challenger from New Zealand, Kai Kara-France. Pantoja has a career record of 29-5-0 and is 5-0 in his previous fights. Kara-France has a 25-11-0 career record and is at a 3-2 record in his previous 5 bouts. He is a worthy opponent, and the champ will not have it easy, but despite the stats, Pantoja is the absolute favorite to keep the title with 1.39 odds. His challenger is at 3.05 and a clear underdog, albeit not completely without a shot at the belt.
The biggest fight of the night and the headliner of the whole event will feature Ilia Topuria from Spain and the 2 ranked Charles Oliveira from Brazil. This lightweight bout is a direct fight for the title belt, and one of those duels where experience and legendary status meet the next generation of greats. Topuira has an incredible 16-0-0 record, with 62% of his wins coming from TKO/KO. Oliverira is much more experienced with a staggering 35-10-0 and 3-2 in his last 5. Despite his status in the sport and an incredible career, as well as the current second best rank, Topuira is a huge favorite with 1.24 odds to win the title. The Brazilian is at 4.10 and without much chance of getting another title.
Stake’s Exclusive Interview with Alexandre Pantoja
The online casino and sportsbook Stake is famous for its partnerships with athletes, and its insightful interviews with them that allow the players and fans to get valuable predictions before big events. In their latest, they sat down for an Exclusive Pantoja interview with the UFC Flyweight Champion and Stake Ambassador, before his title defense at UFC 317. He co headlines the Las Vegas event and was kind enough to give his preview of the fights. As a proud sponsor of the UFC, Stake offers major promotions during the event, so make sure to use this interview and make some bets for the upcoming MMA event.
To start the interview, Stake asked about the weight and whether it is consistent or fluctuates between fights. The fighter said his “weight goes up and down very easily.” He added, “When I start to lift, I go to about 150lbs, but my strength and conditioning coach is very good.” He said his ACL recovery made him stronger, adding, “When I go to training, I am way stronger, and my training partners feel the difference. When people try to take me down now, I have the power to defend, and when you have power, you can save your gas tank.”
Talking about confidence, Stake asked about facing an opponent he has beaten before. Pantoja revealed that “Winning a fight comes down to who wants it more, but the one difference that Kai Kara-France has now is that he is a father.” Indeed, his opponent is a father of two now. Pantoja continued, “That’s the big difference between 2016 and now, and when you have family, you have something to fight for, it’s not just about yourself. That’s when you start to be humble, that’s how you become a better human.” Family is definitely a big advantage in sports.
Stake mentioned Pantoja’s comments and praise of Kai before, of his right hand, and asked how confident he is in his chin and not being able to be KO’d. Pantoja said, jokingly, “I don’t know if I feel happy about that because it means I’ve been hit a lot!”, and added, “It’s something I have been working on and in my last fight with Kai Asakura I think I showed that I have different ways to go with the fight. I don’t need to get hit.” He did say he had some regrets, “I think my chin made me do stupid things. When you put me in those situations, I would choose the pouches that hit me.”
Finishing the interview, he was asked how long UFC champs should have to defend their belt before being stripped of the title, to which Pantoja answered, “I think maybe six months. Six months to have something scheduled. Let’s put 10 months from fight to fight, and why not?” He added, “What is happening now is sad, maybe it’s time to say bye,” commenting on Jon Jones’ title and Tom Aspinall standing by. For more, check out the full interview.
