UFC 323 Picks & Predictions of Top Fights
The UFC 2025 season is coming to an end. On December 6th, we’re going to get UFC 323, and it will be the last PPV event of the year. The event has 14 bouts on schedule, but we’re not going to dedicate attention to all of them. We’re going to help your bookmaking weekend with a few picks and predictions of the event’s top fights. The action will take place on December 6th, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both main and co main events are title bouts, and thus this event promises a lot of excitement.
While the belt holders are both heavy favorites there are still a few nice predictions to be made leading up to UFC 323. The main event is the much expected rematch between Merab The Machine Dvalishvili and Petr Yan, while the co main event belongs to the flyweight encounter between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van. There’s plenty more action down the card, but let us start with the co main and the main event in the evening. Here’s what picks and predictions are at the moment.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Alexandre Pantoja is a man worth admiring him. Nothing was given to him. He had to fight his way through many obstacles to reach the top. The flyweight belt now belongs to him, and if learned anything from his last five bouts is that he is not yet willing to let it go. During the exclusive UFC 323 interview Pantoja gave to Stake, he revealed just how difficult his path to stardom was. Since 2020 Pantoja has been on an impressive run of wins, not allowing anyone to get close to him. Every contender that came his way was taken down in fashion, and the once diminished value of the flyweight title was elevated by a single combatant.
While often seen as an undersized fighter even for flyweight division, Pantoja never shied from putting in the work needed to overcome his weaknesses. At the moment he trains at Florida’s ATT gym, which is a home to plenty of good fighters all with a different background and that’s something that Alexandre dived into to aid him in making his fighting portfolio quite diverse. During his title reign he has proven that he can take on any opponent regardless of their size and skills.
As far as 125 pounds fighters go, there weren’t any able to stand up to Pantoja in recent years. With an black belt in BBJ and exquisite grappling skills, paired with his high quality striking, Pantoja has been cut out to be a champion. With a fine defence and more than enough experience he is entering this bout as favorite to win too. Taking out your division throughout the past few years also did wonders to confidence Pantoja takes into the octagon every time he is prepared to defend his title.
While many see Pantoja’s age as his only weakness, when you take a look at his quickness, strength, and athleticism you quickly understand age is just a number. Yet, that’s not where his biggest strength lies, it is in his mentality. His mentality is tough as a rock with some of the highest fighting IQ in the UFC. It’s been years since anyone managed to get close to him. He is a perfect combination of physical and mental resilience equipped to take on the best of the best in MMA. The mixture of Muay Thai, wrestling, and BBJ he possesses will be a real challenge for Joshua Van.
Van, who is one of the fastest ascending superstars in the UFC needs to be aware of the man he has across him. Joshua Van is a natural competitor who is more than a skilled mixed martial artist. Unlike Pantoja, the Burmese born fighter is not an expert in Judo, BJJ , or wrestling. What he does best is fighting on his feet, throwing punches, and taking people down. So far, his approach worked. With a 7-1 record he is more than deservingly in the flyweight title contention. The one defeat in his resume belongs to Charles Johnson who managed to knock him out.
Despite Van’s quick rise to stardom at only 24 years of age, he has never faced an opponent of Alexandre Pantoja’s quality. While age does work to his advantage against the Brazilian, the rest of his arsenal might not be elite the same way it is with Alexandre. Pantoja has been going at the best UFC had to offer for more than a decade. If you plan to bet on UFC 323 you need to know that it will be a matter of seconds before Pantoja throws Van on the ground for the first time.
While everyone would love to see this fight go the distance, or to witness Pantoja falling down via knockout for a fresh start in the division, the most likely scenario is another title defence by Pantoja. We see it happening before the end of the third round, via Panotja submission. The bookmakers are with us on this one, as a clear win by Pantoja regardless of the way of the win is paid by 1.44 odds, while a win on Joshua Van is paid with 2.90 odds. You’re free to make your picks, but odds tell the story about this one clearly enough as far as our book goes.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Merab has been the sole owner of the bantamweight division for over a year. The reign would be longer but the man has decided to defend the title three times during a calendar year, and he is now about to do it for the fourth time in twelve months. His next opponent is a familiar face in Petr Yan who The Machine fought in 2023. Two years ago it was a dominant performance by the Georgian fighter and the bookies are expecting more of the same this time around too.
The equation is simple as far as odds go. Merab is a favourite with 1.24 odds. Things will be like that when you’re one of the top wrestlers in the UFC. He dominates opponents with his cardio and thus the nickname The Machine. While his wrestling is superb there isn’t an aspect of Merab’s fighting portfolio that should be underestimated. His hands are good enough to take down anyone if he lands a hit, but he is more likely to work his way through on Yan by mounting insufferable pressure from the first round onward.
Merab has made a name for himself in UFC by not only being a skilled fighter but as a man who can truly put out a 110% output when in the octagon. His cardio has provided The Machine nickname, and when you’re facing a fighter who can fight for ten rounds, you know that the first five will not be any fun. As far as the bantamweight division goes, Merab is without competition. Sean O’Malley thought he had what it takes but he was denied on two occasions.
As if being one of the best UFC fighters at the moment was not enough, Merab also possesses high motivation and mental resilience. In an era where fighters cherry pick their opponents, Merab is defending his belt for the fourth time this year. With the cardio he possesses, and the domination he shows in the octagon, it wouldn’t be a surprise that he defends his belt more than four times next year. As far as the current UFC bantamweight roster goes, there are two names that people see as top contenders. They’re Umar Nurmagomedov and Petr Yan. Both have been defeated by Merab in the past, and Yan who is the next challenger expects more from the rematch.
Petr Yan is a skilled warrior but his strengths are on the opposite side of the spectrum compared to Merab. Unlike The Machine who goes forward with his wrestling, Yan is more focused on his boxing/striking. This was well demonstrated by Yan during their first fight when he landed a few quality strikes. Yet, all of his weaknesses were exposed in the awe of Merab’s relentless takedowns and world class wrestling.
In the aftermath of their last fight, Petra Yan has stated that he entered the bout injured and that he was not 100% prepared, signalling that the outcome might be different this time around. While there might be truth to that claim, in the two years between their last bout, Merab has shown more than Yan, and we are sure that he will defeat him once again with the same approach that worked the other time around. As long as Yan can keep the fight on his feet, he has a chance. Yet, the moment Merab takes matters down to the ground, it’s all over for Petr’s title aspirations.
As we said, the bookmakers do not believe that Petra Yan, or any current bantamweight can hold the candle to Merab and thus the win on him is paid by 1.24 odds. Yan, who is a fine fighter in his own right, is a heavy underdog with 4.20 odds. This one will be yet another dominant win by Merab, and if the bantamweight doesn’t change anytime soon, he will dominate for years to come. It’s no wonder that fans are salivating at the possibility of Alexandre Pantoja going up a weight class to face Merab. We know we do too. Now, that matchup is worth hyping.
Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
This bout deserves a mention too, considering the difference in styles that we’re going to see in it. Manuel Torres, a Chihuahua, Mexico born fighter is an aggressive hard hitter, whose only focus when fighting is going forward and taking his opponent head on. Currently he is holding an 4-1 record in the UFC and will be looking to add to it at UFC 323. The main traits of his style are hits from distance, expert use of elbows, knees and shoulders as every well adept Muay Thai fighter would do. While good on feet, he is also not shy of taking any fight to the ground. Yet, the focus on the ground is never on wrestling but good old ground and pound.
Grant Dawson on the other side is a fighter completely different from Torres. He is a calm wrestler, willing to take any fight to the distance. He trains at the same gym as Pantoja so you can know that this lightweight contender is a well trained wrestler. While we know where his focus lies, his overall MMA skills are not to be underestimated. Due to the clear difference in styles, this will be one of the most interesting fights of the night. While there are differences in styles and skill in Merab vs. Petr and Alexandre vs. Joshua, the gap in quality is not as evident between Dawson and Torres.
Torres will be looking to keep Dawson’s takedowns at bay and to pose a threat from distance with his world class striking. Like every wrestler in the UFC, Dawson will be looking to take the battle to the ground as soon as possible. If the fight goes the distance, you can bet that the winner is Grant Dawson. Yet, we are sure that Manuel Torres will be looking to wrap the fight before the third round ends. We believe that he can do it. An KO/TKO win by Torres might be on the cards here, and that’s our prediction for the night. The bookmakers tend to disagree with us, as Dawson is favorite for this one with 1.46 odds, while Torres’ win pays with 2.85 odds.
You can go with our suggestion or follow the bookmakers suggestions. Either way, in addition to these three bouts, the UFC 323 will also be a home to fights such as Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott , Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan, Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan, Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva, and Nazim Sadykhov vs Farès Ziam, so you can pick to predict any of these fights.
