UFC 321: What the Stats Say About Each Fighter’s Path to Victory

In recent months UFC has treated us to some very good events. The trend will continue in October, at UFC 321. We are going to have two titles on the lines with Aspinall vs. Gane deciding the men’s heavyweight title ownership, while Jandiroba vs. Dern is going to be for the women’s strawweight belt. Both bouts promise a lot of good fighting and we can’t wait for it. 

If you’re eager to see this fight, and many others too, you need to know that the wait is almost over. UFC 321 event is scheduled for October 25th. The venue is Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. With everything being set up for one great combat show, let us introduce you to the main protagonists. 

Tom Aspinall

The Honey Badger has an impressive 15-3 MMA record, with 8 of those wins coming in UFC, with only one unfortunate defeat under Dana White wing. What makes his record even more impressive is the number of stoppages Tom has had in these wins. It’s all of them. In fact, only one of his opponents has made it to the second round. Aspinall has been touted as the next big thing in UFC for some time, but he only came into possession of the interim heavyweight title in 2023. After Jon Jones retired and vacated the heavyweight title, it fell into Tom’s lap. It was a well deserved reward as Tom has only one defeat in the UFC, and that was in the hands of Curtis Blaydes and only after Aspinall injured his knee, and not due to some superiority from Curtis. Upon regaining full fitness, Tom was quick to return into the octagon vs. Blaydes only to take him down via TKO in the first round. According to expert betting picks and predictions for UFC 321 Tom Aspinall is a clear cut favorite vs. Cyril Gane with his odds being set at 1.20. 

Cyril Gane

Gane is a serial winner, just an unlucky one. He has a 12:2 record in MMA, with both of his losses being defeats in the fights for titles. Since his entry to the UFC, Gane has been able to defeat every fighter put in front of him barring two: Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Due to the fact he has proven himself in recent years, Gane has been very selective about who he fights and how often he fights. With only one fight during the last year, many fans believe that a chance to fight for the title was given to Gane too early. Yet after winning against Alexander Volkov via split decision, and Serghei Spivac via KO/TKO, there aren’t too many fighters more deserving of going against Tom Aspinall at the UFC 321. While you should never write off a heavyweight MMA fighter as each of them can land a significant strike and take the opponent out, the bookmakers believe that Gane doesn’t have the firepower to take out Aspinall with his odds being set at 4.00. A true underdog! 

Virna Jandiroba 

Let’s move onto the women’s strawweight division, where Virna Jandiroba is the No. 1 contender. The Brazilian mixed martial artist is on a hot 5 win streak and looks unstoppable by more than a few parameters. While 5 wins in a row would be impressive regardless of the opponents, when you have Lupita Godinez, Amanda Lemos and Xiaonan Yan on your record, it does sound a tad bit more impressive. Jandiroba has been impressive since the start of her career, and with an 22-3 MMA record she can walk tall. In the UFC she currently stands at 8 wins and 3 defeats. She lost at her UFC debut vs. Carla Esparza, to her UFC 321 opponent Mackenzie Dern in 2020, and vs. Amanda Ribas in 2021. With all that said, she is deservedly in the title conversations, and this might be her best shot to date. 

Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie Dern is the American dream, pretty and deadly inside the octagon. At the moment, she is ranked as the 5th best strawweight fighter in the UFC. So far in her career she has amassed 15 wins and 5 defeats. Before joining UFC she had a clean slate of 5 wins and no defeats, meaning that all 5 of her defeats came inside the company at the highest level. She has a mixed record during her last 5 fights as she lost to Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos, while also winning vs. Amanda Ribas, Angela Hill, and Lupita Godinez. She is seen as a submission expert with high expertise in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. The same can be said for her next opponent, making this an even bout in our opinion and according to UFC 321 betting odds. 

UFC 321 Title Bouts Picks & Predictions 

With two massive bouts on our schedule it is only fair to make a few predictions for the upcoming title challenges. Let’s start with Jandiroba vs. Dern for the vacated strawweight title. 

Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern

We can assure you that these two didn’t have a title fight among themselves on their schedules. This bout went into motion the moment Weili Zhang vacated the strawweight title in August. With the division title being there for the taking, Dana White picked the two fighters most deserving of it to have a go at it at UFC 321. Weili Zhang is now going vs. Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title in November, while Jandiroba vs. Dern is the bout for the vacated strawweight belt. According to the Stake.com odds, Mackenzie Dern is a slight favorite to take a win and the belt home with her odds being set at 1.76. Dern has won their previous duel some 5 years ago, and that might play a role in determining the odds. At the moment, Virna is showing more poise in the octagon, and one would be wise to take her odds into account (2.08).

Jandiroba might be entering this bout as a slight underdog, but she is not to be underestimated. Coming strong after winning five straight bouts, she will be aiming to finally take a belt home. Virna is one of UFCs top submission artists having 14 submission wins to her name. Of course, she will be additionally motivated considering that she has lost once to Dern in the past. Both fighters will be looking to take the opponent down, so you can expect for this fight to be led on the ground, with little to no pound and a lot of grappling and wrestling. When things move to the ground, we can expect that at this time, Virna Jandiroba is the superior fighter, and that win will belong to her via submission. 

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall is a machine. There is no other way to describe the manner in which he has dominated all of his opponents since the moment he joined UFC. The man has 9 fights and 7 first round finishes. Only one of his opponents has made it to round two. At the moment, no other opponent in the entire UFC can compare to Tom in terms of pure striking. The Honey Badger has knocked out the last three of his opponents with ease. One of the more interesting finishes in his career was the one against Sergei Pavlovich. Early in the bout Tom has taken a massive hit to the chin, a trademark left hook by Pavlovich, only to shake it off, show amazing composure, and head movement which lead to Aspinall landing a hit to Sergei’s head and winning the bout via TKO. While striking is the Brits superpower, he is no slouch on the ground too. When necessary he has submitted his opponents as we have seen two times in the UFC so far. Despite being a massive heavyweight fighter, Tom is seen by his peers as one of the most well rounded fighters inside the company. This is what makes him such a massive favorite to win in this one with 1.20 odds. In our book, Gane is a 1st round knockout in the hands of Aspinall. 

As far as Gane goes, he will be looking to make the best out of his third title shot. We can’t say whether he was less favoured vs. Tom now than he was vs. Jones and Ngannou. Either way, his background in Muay Thai is where his advantage over Tom lies in terms of striking and kicking at least. During the last few years, Cyril Gane has been steadily going for the top, only to be stopped at the last obstacle. Unfortunately, Tom Aspinall is one of the most dominant fighters in the world at the moment, so, Gane is left with little to no chances at a win. Each time he has faced a fighter who can take him down he has struggled, and we can’t see it being any different this time around. 

While all eyes will be set on Tom, Cyril, Mackenzie, and Virna, there’s plenty of more interesting bouts to see and wager on. Some of the most interesting ones are Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida with winner of this one being in the contention for the heavyweight title next, Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov, Ikram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun yong, Abdul Kareem Al Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo, Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett, Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo, and Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue. 

With so many good fights, you might be in for a short lesson in what types of bets you have available at the top sports betting providers. 

Top MMA Betting Markets

If you’re serious about wagering on MMA and UFC 321 you need a short introduction to available betting markets. The first and the simplest bet is on the match winner. You bet on the fighter you believe is going to win, regardless of the way it happens whether it’s KO/TKO, submission, unanimous decision or something third. 

• Next in line are the Asian Totals. Just pick a number, and bet over/under. You can apply the Asian Totals on different aspects of every fight. We’re talking about the number of rounds, number of strikes, takedowns, and kicks. You can bet on the number of times a fighter has been down, or wager on the minutes spent on the ground or on the feet. Different bookies provide different markets, but at the end of the day it is about picking a number, and wagering over or under it. 
• One of our favorite MMA bets is on the winning method. Being right on the method of a win pays better in odds while also providing the bettors with a certain degree of satisfaction of being right and showing the knowledge of sport. So, when Aspinall faces Gane you can wager on either fighter winning via KO/TKO, submission, or unanimous and split decisions. 
• If you want to be even more precise you can combine a bet on the match winner and the exact round in which the fight ends. There will be thousands of bettors who will wager on Tom winning via KO/TKO in the first round. 
• At the same time, you’d be wise to consider betting on Virma vs. Mackenzie being a fight that will go the distance. When two submission masters face the fight usually goes to the final bell, and betting on a fight going the distance covers that scenario. 
• Lastly you have parlays, and we’re talking about bets that combine your wagers. You can bet on more than one fight on a slip, or combine the betting markets from above. A good example would be to bet on Tom Aspinall winning the title via submission in the first round, and having Mackenzie Dern winning her fight via unanimous decision while also wagering on the fight going the distance. 

With a few more days to go until UFC 321 you have more than enough time to prepare your bets, and see who has managed to win the title in the end.