UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett: Odds, Predictions & Betting Preview
We’re more than 20 days into the new year, and it was about time for the first UFC event of 2026. UFC 324 will be looking to kick off the year in style, as this is the first season where the company is no longer working under the PPV principle, but under the contract with Paramount. The main bout is worthy of the first UFC event in 2026, and it will be a duel between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. The stakes are high as ever, as the two men will be fighting for the interim lightweight title.
The co main event didn’t fall far from the main one before it was cancelled. It was planned that the former champ, Amanda Nunes, was coming back from retirement to face off with Kayla Harrison. This bout was cancelled due to the neck injury Harrison suffered. Nonetheless, UFC 324 will have plenty of good fights fans need to look forward to. In accordance with its status, the first UFC event of the year will be held at the famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The event is scheduled for January 24th.
UFC 324 Event Breakdown
As we said, UFC 324 will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The main event on the night is a showdown between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. While the majority of the focus will be on the fight that will determine the interim champion in the lightweight division, the rest of the card is more than good too. The co main event is now the fight between the 18-3-0 Sean O’Malley and 22-8-1 Song Yadong, in a bantamweight duel that will determine the next challenger for the division’s new champ Petr Yan.
As far as heavyweights go, the fans in Las Vegas will get to enjoy Waldo Cortes Acosta going against Derrick Lewis. With Nunes vs. Harrison out of the picture the main bout for the women’s division is going to be the face off between Natalia Silva and Rose Namajunas. Other matches that fans of MMA need to have on their bucket lists for the Saturday evening include Allen vs. Silva, Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo, Perez vs. Johnson, and Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez. All in all, we have one hell of a fight night ahead of us, and you’d be wise to check out these exclusive UFC 324 picks and predictions if you plan to wager on the upcoming event.
Gaethje vs. Pimblett-Fighter Analysis
The fight for the interim lightweight belt promises to be a fire. The former interim champ Justin Gaethje will be looking to get himself back in the title contention with a win at UFC 324. His opponent on the night will be more than motivated Paddy Pimblett who is one of the UFCs darlings and an up and coming fighter hungry for success. Gaethje has been with the UFC since 2017, and in the last decade or so has been one of the more reliable performers. His nickname is The Highlight, and that tells you everything you need to know about his fighting style. As far as lightweight goes, Justin Gaethje has been one of the top ranked fighters despite suffering losses in both of his title fights. After all, he faced the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Despite his experience, and stature within the company, the bookmakers have him opened as the underdog for the bout vs. Paddy.
One of the main reasons why Paddy is the one being favoured for this encounter is his youth, which is always an advantage in MMA. Pimblett has been with the UFC since 2021 when he moved from Cage Warriors after being their biggest star for a couple of years. The proud Scouser has one of the most popular personalities in the UFC, exciting fighting style based on submission and grappling, and one of the best walkouts in the UFC at the moment. So far he has a perfect 7/7 score in the UFC, managing to finish five of his opponents. After submitting King Green, Paddy was also excellent in his bout vs. Michael Chandler showing the world that he is more than prepared to be an interim champ, and the one to face Ilia Topuria.
Based on everything we said, and the most recent results both fighters had, Paddy Pimblett is seen as bookmaker’s favorite for this one. What puts him ahead in the eyes of MMA experts is the fact that Pimblett has quite a high finish rate. Also, when you compare the two men at this moment he is the bigger and stronger fighter. Yet, what’s taken against him is that most of his UFC wins were against the gatekeeper such as Tony Ferguson who was one leg out of the company.
At the same time, father time waits for no one, so it has caught up with Justin Gaethje too. The Highlight is not the fighter he once was, and yet his most recent wins were more than impressive. It was like Gaethje turned back time when he fought Dustin Poirier and Rafael Fiziev. Knowing this, while a favourite, Paddy will have a rough night against Gaethje. His chance will lie on the ground, if he manages to take down Justin. Standing up, we take Gaethje all day long. Gaethje vs Pimblett betting odds heavily favour the Englishmen as they’re set at 1.45 on his win, while the odds of Gaethje winning this one stand at 2.85.
Justin Gaethje’s Path to Victory
As we said, Justin’s nickname, The Highlight, is fully deserved. He is a fan favourite in the UFC for a reason. His fighting style is deemed as one of the most exciting in the UFC. So far he has an 67% finish rate in the UFC as he won 14 performance bonuses when he managed to finish his fight via KO/TKO. Only five of his 31 fights have gone down to a decision. His record in MMA stands at 26:5. Last time he was the interim champion it happened after his win over Tony Ferguson. As we said, he never laid his hands on the belt, as his next fight was Khabib Nurmagomedov. When he got his next title chance, and when people saw him as able to win the belt, Charles Oliveira stood in his way. Considering his age, this fight might be Justin’s last chance to give himself another shot at the belt.
Paddy Pimblett’s Game Plan
Pimblett is entering this bout as a heavy favorite according to Stake.com and other sports betting outlets. His reputation deserves the recognition, as Paddy has been touted as a future UFC champion while he was still in Cage Warriors. From a young age he showed that the talent is there, and once he moved to UFC, he showed that work ethic is also present. As we said, he holds an impressive 7:0 record with most impressive wins coming against King Green and Michael Chandler. As far as striking goes, Gaethje is still the superior fighter, but no one can claim that Paddy Pimblett hasn’t improved in this domain massively in the last few years. Despite this, his main weapon in the octagon remains submission grappling. While a star on the rise, there are still many pundits and fans who believe that Paddy was still green for an interim title shot, considering that his biggest win was the one against Chandler.
UFC 324 Odds & Betting Markets
Let’s see the main event through the prism of odds. By now, you understand that Pimblett is seen as the favorite to win this one by the bookies. The odds on the Englishman’s win are set at 1.45, while Gaethje will be looking for his win from a hill of 2.85 odds. What these odds do not tell you is the direction in which this fight could go. For one, the Asian total is set at 2.5 for both fighters, leveling the odds, giving over 1.79 odds, and under 1.92 as far as the number of rounds goes. In accordance with this, the odds set 3.00 for Will The Fight Go The Distance wager suggest that the bookies do not believe that Gaethje can hold his own for 5 rounds. Also, it is possible for Justin to win via KO/TKO, and shorten this bout that way. As far as winning goes, the bookies stand firm with Paddy, giving odds of 2.55 for his win via submission. What we suggest that you take a look at is Justin Gaethje’s win via KO/TKO that is set at 4.90, which is in our book the only way he can win this one.
There are plenty of betting markets available for this bout and MMA in general, which are worth consideration when two so different fighters meet. The most popular betting markets tied to MMA include Match winner, Asian Totals, Winning Method, Winning method (double chance), Winner and exact rounds, Will the fight go the distance?, and parlays. With the first UFC event of 2026 ahead of us in just a couple of days, this is a good opportunity to explore all the betting markets, check out the odds provided by online casinos and sportsbooks such as Stake, and give yourself a chance to start the new year with a massive UFC betting win.
Expert Picks & Betting Strategies
With the number of fights each UFC event has, it is hard to win if you try to guess every outcome. That’s why it is important that you strategize, and prepare for every wager. A few of our own expert picks could aid you in doing this. As far as the main event goes, Pimblett is the safe bet. He will find a way to dominate Gaethje via grappling and submissions, and get that interim belt. The same can be said for Natalia Silva, who will continue her undefeated UFC streak. Her odds are 1.28.
As far as picking an easy winner goes, you can add Sean O’Malley to the mix. In a three round showdown, the fight will go the distance, and O’Malley will win the bout via decision. On a side of surprise outcomes, if you’re looking for one, picking a win on Ricky Turcios is the way to go, as he is a 2.55 underdog in a fight he could easily win vs. Cameron Smotherman. Another almost certain win is expected from Modestas Bukauskas, who is a fighter on the rise and winning against a ranked fighter in Nikita Krylov on 1.69 odds should be on the plate at UFC 324.
As far as strategies for betting on MMA go, there aren’t any bulletproof strategies. Yet, the game plan you need to follow is simple. When two durable fighters fight, bet on the match going to a decision. Recognize overhyped young prospects in the UFC, and wager against them. This should be one of the reasons why you need to consider Gatehje at 2.85 odds as the hype of Pimblett is bigger than his skills. If you chase underdog wins, always wager on their wins via decision, and never via KO/TKO. Lastly, always bet on style mismatches. A wrestler will have an advantage against a striker, while a pressure fighter will dominate a low output counter striker, and a grappler will defeat someone with a weak submission defense.
Final Prediction & Where to Bet on UFC 324
It is never easy to predict the outcome of a main UFC event. At UFC 324 we will have a duel of an up and coming fighter Paddy Pimblett, and old school warrior, Justin Gaethje. As we said, the bookmakers favour Paddy, but this bout could go either way. For Paddy, chasing a bet on a win via submission at 2.55 odds would be a wise decision. For all of you who believe Gaethje can make one last run at the title, winning via knockout is the way to go and it pays handsomely with 4.90 odds. For all of you who do not know where to place their wagers, stake is the ideal choice as they provide favourable odds and are an official betting partner of UFC.
